Recent Market Statistics
HOUSING MARKET STATISTICS (OCTOBER 2009)
100% of people that eat carrots will die. I mention this to remind people to be careful in how they interpret statistics. Most of the statistics we as real estate agents are provided with focus on the number of homes sales, instead of the volume of home sales. You get the volume by simply adding up the sales price of all the homes that sold within a particular time frame.
To me, volume gives us a more accurate snapshot of the housing market. For example, if I personally sell (10) 1 million dollar homes in a given time frame, my personal volume (or “production”) would be 10 million dollars. However, if I sell (100) homes at $40,000/per, my volume would be $4 million. As an agent, volume is going to be more important than just the number of transactions. The same may apply to the overall real estate market. Anytime I read in the newspaper or see an interview on television in which the “number” of home sales is mentioned, the question in my mind immediately is “what’s the volume”. The other statistics that tie into volume and are worth noting are the median and average sales prices. In a strengthening market, I believe these numbers should be increasing. Here are a few examples of volume that I ran in the MLS system:
The total volume of Sioux Falls residential, single-family sales of homes priced $150,000 and under from January 1, 2008 through October 31, 2008 was $99,485,301. For the same time frame in 2009, the total volume was $105,134,813. This represents an increase in volume of nearly 5.7%.
The total volume of Sioux Falls residential, single-family sales of homes priced from $300,000-$500,000 from January 1, 2008 through October 31, 2008 was $40,491,187. For the same time frame in 2009, the total volume was $36,582,395. This represents a decrease in volume of nearly 10%.
The total volume of Sioux Falls residential, single-family sales of homes priced at $500,000 and higher from January 1, 2008 through October 31, 2008 was $24,846,636. For the same time frame in 2009, the total volume was $20,082,775. This represents a decrease in volume of over 19%.
As you review the statistics, please keep in mind that qualifying first-time homebuyers have been receiving an $8,000 tax credit for purchasing homes most of 2009. I believe (as does the National Association of Realtors or NAR) that the program has boosted homes sales in 2009, particularly for homes priced under $200,000. The government has also intervened (purchased mortgage-back sercurities,etc.) in other areas to help keep mortgage rates artificially low.
One of the statistics that caught my attention is the number of months supply of single-family homes priced above $300,000. There is over a twenty one month supply in this segment of the market. For homes priced from $100,000-$150,000, the supply is closer to five months. A balanced market should have about a six month supply of homes. If the supply of homes is under six months, I’d refer to it as a seller’s market. If the supply exceeds six months, it can become a buyer’s market.
If you’d like me to prepare some specific housing market statistics, please feel free to contact me. Recent market statistics are provided below, please click on the arrow on the right hand side (the arrow is not visible after the first click, but continue to click-through on the same spot).